Commodities and rates

Stormy earlier discussed the Frankel thesis that low rates leads to higher commodity prices.
I can see the argument, but I do not buy it. Rather I have alway looked at it the other way and viewed commodity prices as a leading indicator of interest rates. Rising commodity prices are a sign of strong worldwide economic growth that generally trail a period of low rates. Strong, above trend growth causes both commodity prices and rates to rise.




Moreover, if you divide commodity prices by initial unemployment claims what you get is a leading index for the Taylor Rule. Generally, but not always rising commodity prices lead overall inflation that in turn leads interest rates.