Thursday, July 09, 2009

Nails: The 2012 Republican candidate for President?

From Lenny Dyksytra's letter to friends about his bankruptcy filing yesterday:

William McKinley filed for protection while serving as Ohio's governor in 1893. He was in debt to the tune of $130,000 (an insurmountable sum in those days!) before some friends eventually helped to bail him out. Three years later, he occupied a desk in the Oval Office. [emphasis mine]

That seems much clearer than declaring you're "not a quitter" while wearing hip-waders while your lawyer claims your multimillion dollar book deal (and private fortune) aren't enough to deal with the cost of ethics charges against you.

Also, Jim Cramer may want to avoid Lenny for a while:
Ulysses S. Grant went bankrupt after leaving office when a partner in an investment-banking venture swindled him. (I can certainly identify with this one.) [emphasis mine]

Good thing Dykstra doesn't pretend to be an investment advisor.




Oh. Well, at least no one ever sang his praises in the mass media, right?




Oops.

Dykstra in 2012, on a platform of Fiscal Responsibility. "Returning to the Glory of the McKinley Era."

Seems as likely to work as anything else.

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Reversed Psychology: Tax Cuts and Work

by Bruce Webb

In comments to his last post A Response to Megan McArdle, Again Cactus put the following up as a summary of the Economic Right's approach to tax cuts:
1. tax cuts mean people are encouraged to work harder
2. people work harder
3, growth

Another version of this was posted, without apparent irony, on a MY post on the soda tax. How to Think about Pubic Health Taxes (bolding mine but actually echoed when MY later quoted himself)

Think about the case for taxing income, via the income tax and FICA. Why do it? Well, to get the money. That’s how we finance Social Security, the Department of Defense, Medicare, interest payments on the national debt, Medicaid, federal aid to schools, veterans’ health care and benefits, the FBI, etc. Now what’s the case against taxing people’s income? Well, it’s that it discourages work and it discourages investment. And that’s bad for the economy. Now we go back and forth over whether any given expenditure has a value that outweighs the economic costs. Liberals, like me, tend to think that a relatively high level of expenditure is justified whereas folks on the right tend to disagree.
But that simply shows, and not for the first time that some of our progressive wunderkinden have simply internalized the central tenet of supply side voodoo, the idea that income taxes are a tax on work and capital gains taxes are a tax on investment, and that like proposed taxes on soda or existing taxes on liquor and gasoline the more you tax something the less people are inclined to expose themselves to that tax.

This I think is a profound misunderstanding of the psychology of work and investment. Those who care about why I would think that and those who are just dying to mock the whole idea can follow me below the fold.


Now there are some people who work just for the sake of work itself. In fact a lot of people will spend many hours on work that comes with no monetary compensation at all. We call these people 'hobbyists' and 'unpaid volunteers'. And I suppose if you taxed these people directly on their time there would be some tendency to reduce that time, or at least the time reported to the tax man. But most people do not approach work as some sort of dispensable hobby, instead work is the means to some other desired end whether that end be subsistance, or fame, or fortune with its attendant material objects, or in some cases simple sociality (e.g. some people live to organize office birthday parties). Mostly though people are one way or another working for the paycheck.

But even the paycheck amount is not an end in itself, at least not for everybody, and particularly not for those people who work outside the hyper-competitive world of Wall Street, not every clerk dreams of being office supervisor, not every framer dreams of being site superintendent. some times what you have is good enough.

And when we examine history we can see that in most times and most places this is the norm, sure there are always strivers and always some measure of economic mobility but particularly in largely pre-industrialized societies people tend to end up at some equilibrium. And that equilibrium point is mostly established by a desired level of consumption.

I first came across a formalized version of this in Chayanov's The Theory of Peasant Economy. I just now ran across a pretty good version of Chayanov's overall thesis here Russian History Encyclopedia: Peasant Economy
Perhaps the greatest theorist of the peasant economy was a Russian economist named Alexander Chayanov, who lived from 1888 to 1939. Chayanov published a book entitled Peasant Farm Organization, which postulated a theory of peasant economy with application for peasant economies beyond Russia. He argued that the laws of classical economics do not fit the peasant economy; in other words, production in a household was not based upon the profit motive or the ownership of the means of production, but rather by calculations made by households as consumers and workers. In modern terminology, the family satisfied rather than maximized profit.

According to Chayanov, the basic principle for understanding the peasant economy was the balance between the household member as a laborer and as a consumer. Peasant households and their members could either increase the number of hours they worked, or work more intensively, or sometimes both. The calculation made by households whether to work more or not was subjective, based upon an estimate of how much production was needed for survival (consumption) and how much was desired for investment to increase the family's productive potential. Those estimates were balanced against the unattractiveness of agricultural labor. Households sought to reach an equilibrium between production increases and the disutility of increased labor. In short, households increased their production as long as production gains outweighed the negative aspects of increased labor. This principle of labor production in the peasant economy led Chayanov to argue that the optimal size of the agricultural production unit varied according to the sector of production at a time the official policy of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union was pushing for large collective farms. As a result of this disagreement with Marxist economists and the Party line, Chayanov was arrested in 1930 and executed in 1939.
Chayanov came to his understanding not from a position of armchair theorist but by doing some serious data analysis of the surprisingly (to us) abundant documentation of peasant work life in Czarist Russia. And the result was that he found some very large divergences in work effort over the course of the standard peasant work-life with the peasant couple stepping up their work hours during some periods (for example while children are small and when setting up children with their own holdings) and then dialing it back.

Now even in the Peasant Economy there are strivers who undertake to raise their equilibrium point, your German 'kleinbauer' maybe wanting to rise to the status of 'bauer' and your 'bauer' to 'grossbauer', but equally the shift could go the other direction in any given generation, but the whole effort was not particularly driven by the profit motive but instead by the desired outcome.

Which is where supply siders get their psychology reversed. They see the income tax as a tax on work and as such a disincentive to work itself. Just as they see a tax on capital gains as a tax on capital and so a disincentive to invest. The historical reality generally shows the exact opposite, the higher the tax the more you have to work to achieve your desired consumption outcome, and similarly the same is true for investment, more tax means more intensification of investment activity. Now certainly there are limits to how far this process can go, if you tax labor output down to subsistence and sub-subsistence levels you risk your serfs and/or wage employees simply running away, and contrawise if you tax capital at rates up to 98% it is no wonder that the Beatles ran away from England as well. But there is no evidence that current levels of taxation are actually above the sweet spot where taxes mean more work and more capital investment rather than less.

Meaning we need to redraw that Laffer curve to include consumption equilbrium points for various income levels. If a person's current income is above his own personal equilibrium point he might well react to a tax cut by reducing his hours of work. If instead a tax increase takes him from above equilibrium to below he might react by increasing hours. And the same is true for the investor. If as a group a society's top 5% or top 1% are living large at current returns and rates, a tax cut might just lead to them commissioning artists or patronizing writers and scholars. Traditionally aristocracies have sought to reduce or eliminate their overall tax burdens, and it was not because they had a burning desire to spend every day working their fingers to the bone. Instead that tax exemption enabled them to maintain or even expand their consumption.

Supply side psychology treats 'work' and 'investment' as ends subject to direct incentives or disincentives from taxes. But historical reality shows they the are instead means to other ends that include such things as consumption and display. Calculating the impact on any given tax change on any given group requires some deeper understanding of the sociology involved among that group. History is full of instances where people scraped and scrapped behind the scenes simply to maintain appearances at Court or its socio-economic equivalent (think 'Sunday Go to Meeting Clothes' among the working classes).

How hard are you willing to work to keep that Bass Boat and the Lake Cabin even as the taxes on them are "killing you"? Are you really going to cut back your overtime in response to a tax increase if it means giving up your Season Ski Pass?

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Morgan Stanley Plans to Turn Downgraded Loan CDO Into AAA Bonds

by divorced one like Bush

Well, well, well, seems our Robert will have some more thinking to do. Via C & L to Radamisto who want's to know if we have ADD or what comes the Bloomberg story that the money from money machine is being restarted.

Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale.

Morgan Stanley is selling $87.1 million of securities that it expects to receive top AAA ratings and $42.9 million of notes graded Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, according to marketing documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The bonds were created from Greywolf CLO I Ltd., a CDO arranged in January 2007 by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and managed by Greywolf Capital Management LP, an investment firm based in Purchase, New York.

Gee, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs? Two totally separate companies, just happen to be mentioned together implimenting the same strategic plans.

8/18/08 Morgan Stanley, Goldman link lending to their own creditworthiness
The Financial Times is reporting that Morgan Stanley is implementing systems that tie the prices of credit insurance on their own debt to their commitment to provide financing to their hedge fund clients. The shift would allow the bank to pull out from its funding commitments should it run into a crisis of confidence like that which wiped out Bear Stearns in only a matter of days. Goldman uses a similar arrangement that ties its lending commitments to the firm's own bond prices.


9/21/08
WASHINGTON (Associated Press) -
The Federal Reserve said Sunday it had granted a request by the country's last two major investment banks - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley - to change their status to bank holding companies.
The decision means that the Goldman and Morgan Stanley will be able not only to set up commercial bank subsidiaries to take deposits, giving them a major resource base, but they will also have the same access as other commercial banks to the Fed's emergency loan program.

3/9/09 UPDATE 2-Barclays cuts price targets on Goldman, Morgan Stanley
March 9 (Reuters) - Barclays Capital cut its price targets on Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and said it expects the former investment-banking giants to post losses for December, mostly due to asset markdowns, investment losses and "very subdued" core earnings.

5/19/09
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have formally asked the Federal Reserve for permission to repay a combined $20 billion in federal bailout money.

6/17/09 JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley cut ties with government
In separate statements, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase said they will not issue bonds backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The banks are striving to show they can raise funds without help from the government. Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions might follow suit.

Continuing the July 8, 2009 Bloomberg article:
A lot of banks and insurers “cannot buy anything but AAA,” said Sylvain Raynes, a principal at R&R Consulting in New York and co-author of “Elements of Structured Finance,” which is due to be published in November by Oxford University Press. “You’re manufacturing AAA out of not AAA, therefore allowing those people who have AAA written on their forehead to buy.”

While the Morgan Stanley deal is the first to involve CDOs of loans, banks have been doing the same with commercial mortgage-backed securities in recent weeks.

Jennifer Sala, a spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley, and Gregory Mount, a Greywolf partner, declined to comment.

Banks are using re-REMICs to protect against losses on residential-mortgage securities during the worst housing slump since the Great Depression...Re-REMIC stands for “resecuritizations of real estate mortgage investment conduits,” the formal name of mortgage bonds.

Nice to know We the People have their backs huh?

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009

A Response to Megan McArdle, Again (by cactus)

by cactus

Megan McArdle responds to a post I wrote:

So Obama doesn't count because he's not really a Democrat. But Bill Clinton was. But Richard Nixon--the chap who implemented price controls and massively expanded Social Security and Medicare--was definitely a Republican. Jimmy Carter, who deregulated like mad: definitely a Democrat.

What are these policies that neatly define Democrats to exclude only the ones who happen to have crappy growth? On what metric does Barack Obama register as farther to the right than Bill Clinton? Because from what I remember of the 1990s, I spent most of the decade listening to my genuinely left-wing friends weep that he'd betrayed them. Remember Edelman's resigning in protest of welfare reform?

I thought it was unnecessary at this point to explain the one thing I've pointed out time and again differentiates Republicans from Democrats. I think the first time was here. (I tend not to break out JFK from LBJ, or Nixon from Ford because JFK and Ford only served a short time, but the post that is attached is illustrative of behavior, not performance.)

The difference is the tax burden - that is, the percentage of people's income that gets collected in taxes. Not the marginal rate - the amount people actually pay divided by the amount they make. And there is a difference, a big difference. As an example: George Herbert Walker Bush famously raised marginal rates. It might have cost him an election. But GHW Bush also quietly lowered the tax burden. He did it through the people he appointed to the IRS, through the degree of compliance he sought, through the way his IRS interpreted existing rules and regulations and through how the body of tax rules and regulations changed while he was in office.

Going back to 1952 at least, every Democrat, every single one, has increased the tax burden. Every single Republican raised lowered [h/t Bruce Webb] them. The data in the attached post is from the IRS and goes back only to 1952, but one can wander over to the BEA's NIPA Table 2.1 and compute the tax burden ourselves with National Income data going back to 1929, and whaddaya know, the rule also works for Hoover, FDR, and Truman. Just barely for Truman... but then he is the exception on performance too, right?

Now, I doubt you could find a single person on the right of the political spectrum who would tell you that taxes don't affect economic growth. They all believe taxes affect growth. Of course, the story they tell is that cutting taxes produces faster economic growth. The fact is, however, the Presidents who cut tax burdens tended to produce slower economic growth than those who raised taxes. (I've discussed why in a number of other posts, and I don't feel like rehashing or looking for those posts now. I also note this isn't just true of Presidents. My fellow Angry Bear, Spencer, once pointed out that there are a lot of people out there who seem to think we'd all be better off if the country was Alabama than if it was Massachussetts.)

Unfortunately, tax burden data, like any other bit of real world data, fluctuates somewhat from year to year, so its really going to be a while before we know what direction they're really headed over O's administration. As in, several years. And most of us are impatient. So we'd like to have some leading indicators, so to speak, of what Obama is going to do, of where he's going to fall on the one R v. D divide that really matters. And right now, he's behaving like the folks who have cut tax burdens in the past. He's also talking like them. His bail-out is identical to GW's, and when he talks about taxes, it doesn't sound like Clinton, it sounds like GW. So its reasonable to wonder whether he's going to stick to the R v. D rule. And the next test coming up is healthcare; a D would be putting his political capital on the public option right now. An R wouldn't. What's it gonna be, we'll soon see.

More below the fold.

Now, in Megan's post, she refers to "Cactus and his merry band of madmen." I'm not sure the merry band of madmen over here truly have a leader, much less that I'm the one (Dan is the official grand poobah in charge of the blog, after all!!) but I'm guessing you aren't a part of that merry band of madmen if any of the following apply to you:

  1. You do not believe that since 1929 at least, every single D has increased the tax burden and every single R has decreased the tax burden, despite the fact that the data shows precisely this, and despite the fact that it fits the caricature of Ds and Rs to a T, so to speak.
  2. You do not believe that since 1929, Ds have generally outperformed Rs when it comes to real economic growth, despite the fact that the data shows precisely this.
  3. You do not believe that administrations that cut the tax burden have also generally been the administrations that grew more rapidly, despite 1. and 2.
  4. You do not believe that the tax burden could possibly have anything to do with growth.

If you do believe these things, if you believe what the data shows , I'm sorry to say but you're one of us, one of the merry band of madmen. On the other hand, if you fit these rules, there are a whole lot of folks out there, Megan McArdle included, who would consider you sane.

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Swimming in the Shallow Part of the Gene Pool

Curv3ball at The Poor Man warms the cockles of this Northeast Philadelphia native's heart.

Go Read the Whole Thing.

Gary Becker must be rolling over in his grave.

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Who are You and What Have You done with Kevin Drum ?

Robert Waldmann

The absolutely brilliant and almost reliably reasonable Kevin Drum quotes the very smart and usually reasonable Dan Drezner and writes

In a speech today in Russia, Barack Obama said that "the pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game." Dan Drezner isn't so sure:

If he had said, "The pursuit of prosperity is no longer a zero-sum game," I'd be fine with the passage. I still think power is a zero-sum concept, however. The two ideas are linked but hardly the same.


I suppose that's true. Even in a Thomas Barnett-ish world where all the big players gang up to police the world, it's prosperity and security that are positive sum, not raw power. Anyone care to try and come up with a counterexample?



Power is not at all a zero sum game. If different powers are united in one pair of hands, there isn't the same total power. Instead there is much more power.

Consider an obvious mild example. If there is a competitive market no one has power over me. If you refuse to sell to me, I just buy from someone else at the same price.
But if you are a monopolist I just can't get the product if you refuse to sell to me. If you have a monopoly on, say, water, I must beg you on bended knee or die of thirst. The total amount of power in the world is completely different if many many people have water or if only one does.

More generally the whole point of, say, the US constitution is to reduce total political power by dividing it. If the President, congress, the supreme court and the armed forces worked together, then together they would have absolute unlimited power. The US goverment had much more power over people in the US in 2006 than in 1996. That was what was so terrible about 2006.

If we take Obama literally, he is saying that he will cooperate with Putin to dominate the world which would be relatively free if they didn't cooperate. I trust he was lying. I really have no choice. If the quest for power ceases to be played as a roughly zero sum game, we will all be slaves.

What the hell is going on ? I think that Drezner and Drum are using "zero sum" to mean harsh, red in tooth and claw, not suited to utopian dreams. Their view is that cooperation can't make the outcome of the power game better for everyone. That doesn't mean that it can't make things worse for almost everyone.

Worse even than disagreeing with Drum, my argument is a clumsy verbose attempt to paraphrase an argument made by Hayek. Pro Hayek, contra Drum -- what is happening to me ?

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Oil Price Speculation

Robert Waldmann

I almost feel I might disagree with Paul Krugman about international economics with imperfect competition. In particular Krugman confidently asserts that the wild swings in the the price of petroleum are the result of simple supply and demand curves (which are both extremely price inelastic so almost vertical) and not of speculation. He argues that speculation can only affect the spot market price via hoarding. Given supply and demand curves, the only way to affect the spot price is to take product off the market. This didn't happen during the period of increasing petroleum prices so it was peak oil not speculation.

Given supply and demand curves.

So what do we have to assume to get supply and demand curves ? After the jump I wonder.


update: Well that was quick. Rule number 1 never debate Paul Krugman. Rule number 2 when Krugman seems to be wrong, look at rule number 1.

Krugman has a new post on oil prices and speculation. He notes that this time the price increase is clearly being caused by speculation (which might be perfectly rational) as is shown by the build up of inventories of stored oil above the ground. This means that my theory (after the jump) about how speculation can affect oil prices without causing large inventories of oil above the ground is false unless I can explain what is different now compared to a year ago. This is possible (spare oil tankers not required for shipping are being used for storage) but does sound like special pleading.



To have supply and demand curves it is sufficient (but not necessary) that there be perfect competition. The fact is that some economists tend to accidentally assume perfect competition without thinking. Paul Krugman is not one of those economists and, besides, competition in the market for petroleum is very famously not perfect (remember OPEC ?).

It is also possible to derive a supply curve for a monopolist or for a Cournot oligopoly. To get a supply curve from a cartel one has to consider game theory, but I'd say OPEC can be considered to be Saudi Arabia plus free riders.

However, and crucially, the derivation assumes that the suppliers maximize the present value of revenues. Perfect competition is not needed, but rationality is.

Clearly the fact that Saudi Arabia has oil and wants other things can't imply anything including a supply curve. If they are total crazy fools they might do anything.

Also, importantly, under imperfect competition the cost of a small deviation from the optimal present value of revenue maximizing price is small squared. The cost of huge pricing errors is huge squared, but after decades of near price stability a boundedly rational non fool might have little idea about pricing as the costs of mistakes are tiny even calculated with the benefit of hind sight.

So how about this model. Saudi Arabia charges a spot price which is a simple function of the futures price and pumps enough to meet demand. They follow this rule unless they are pumping at capacity, in which case they charge a higher price, or less than half of capacity, in which case they charge a lower price.

The futures price would then feed right into the spot price so long as Saudi Arabia is pumping between half and full capacity.

The hoarding of oil is all under the Saudi desert.

The only difference between my model and Krugman's is that Krugman believes that Saudi Arabia has long been pumping all it can. True Saudi pumping capacity is, in fact, an unobservable variable. One can't tell if futures market speculation controls the spot price of petroleum without knowing how much oil Saudi Arabia can pump. They are telling us a number, but they are presumably lying so we just don't know.


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Megan McArdle Has a Question

by cactus


Megan McArdle Has a Question

Megan McArdle has a question:

What happens to the cottage industry among Democratic-leaning armchair economists grinding out analyses proving that Democratic presidents are, like, totally awesome for the economy? Presuming that we're stuck--as seem very likely--in at least a couple of years of really grinding low-to-no growth, Obama is going to destroy their figures. Are we in for a resurgence of belief in exogenous growth factors?



Given my co-author and I will have a book out next year that McArdle and her readers would consider "analyses proving that Democratic presidents are, like, totally awesome for the economy" I figure I'm qualified to respond. (BTW - regular readers of this blog know how hard I have tried to get across the not so subtle and one would think completely obvious point that if one band of sorry oafchucks is less bad for the economy than the other band of sorry oafchucks, that doesn't in any way imply that the less sorry oafchucks "are, like, totally awesome.")

So here's my response: it depends on the motivations of those Democratic-leaning armchair economists, doesn't it? The right is not the only side with its Mankiws and its Sowells. There are plenty of those on the left too, and they're no different than their right wing counterparts. They believe that a (D) following some politician's name is short-hand for "that human being is somehow laudable."

But there are others who believe that a (D) is short-hand for something else, namely that the politician generally hews a bit more closely to a particular set of policies that have worked a little better than the policies adhered to by people who have an (R) after their name. Its not a guarantee of performance.


I have noticed that many people who take the second approach have been criticizing Obama's approach even before he took office. I for one have posted (over and over and over) on the folly of bailing out the financial institutions that have caused this mess (since when is taking from the poor and middle class and sending to the fabulously wealthy compatible with the policies that generally define Democrats?), and I've had a few posts noting that Christina Romer was a very poor choice for CEA chair (Mankiw's endorsement alone should have been a tip-off even to someone who never read her "narrative economic history" paper).

Sure, exogenous factors do matter. Truman was a Democrat, but the economy was awful for the first few years of his administration; transitioning from WW2 to a peacetime economy ain't easy. And it sucked in 1933 too, which was FDR's first year. This despite the fact that annualized, real GDP per capita grew much faster under FDR than any other President over the time period for which the BEA computed GDP, even leaving out the War years. Which also indicates something else - the economy might still turn out alright despite the many Obama mis-steps. Time will tell.

But there are a few other things - for one, you don't have only one (R) or (D) administration to look at. You have probability and statistics. (And to forestall the point that inevitably gets brought up again and again and again and again, that's what degrees of freedom are for.)

And while no theory is perfect, the better ones require fewer exceptions. If Obama starts acting like a Democrat and the economy still sucks by the end of his term, that means Democrats have to explain away Obama and Truman. Republicans still have to explain why Republicans generally do so much worse when it comes to real GDP per capita growth rates. The BEA has only been calculating real GDP per capita since 1929, and yet the best performing Republican, Reagan, is beat out by four Democrats, and all but one of the entire bottom half of the sample is taken up by Republicans. Tip to Megan McArdle: nobody can tell you for sure who's going to win next year's World Cup in South Africa, but betting on Grenada to pull it off is a bad idea.

And then there's the question that McArdle herself keeps bringing up - the mechanism. The mechanism doesn't apply if you don't have the right inputs. As I noted above, Obama has not yet behaved like a Democrat; his policies on the bail-out have been essentially the same as those of his predecessor who most certainly was no Democrat.

So in the end, here's what I say to Megan McArdle: ask your question again when Obama starts doing things a Democrat would do. Pushing through the "public option" on a healthcare would be a start.

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Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Stimulating! Stimulating! The Conservative's Case

Andrew Samwick states the obvious, clearly and well:

I think we are now 18 months behind where we should be in moving forward with sensible government spending plans. We should have pulled the fiscal policy ripcord in January 2008 with a public investment plan designed to repair our aging infrastructure. I'd rather have the 18 months back -- as would the millions of unemployed workers who could have been collecting a paycheck if we had started sooner -- but the proper course of action today is the same as it was then.


You know what's coming next, don't you?







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What Happens when a Junkie goes Cold Turkey?

Credit crunch, followed by asset deflation.

See also Robert's series of essays in December/January.

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Political Will has always been a Debased Coin

Gary Farber lays out the details of who the real "silent majority" were in the Nixon Administration's approach to Viet Nam, using Nixon's own words.

Such as this, from 20 January 1973—two years and three months before the ultimate U.S. withdrawal:

Nixon realized that the Communists were going to win in Vietnam. "I look at the tide of history out there," he said in the Oval Office, "South Vietnam probably can never even survive anyway."


Go read the whole thing.

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In Defense of Sarah Palin

by cactus

In Defense of Sarah Palin

I don't know what Sara Palin's plans are, nor do I know precisely why she resigned. If I had to guess, there's a scandal waiting to erupt. Perhaps not - she isn't leaving her job for several more weeks, and if a scandal is about to erupt, she might not be out of the limelight in time.

But be that as it may, whatever her reasons, I think Palin is doing the right thing. She's become something of a laughingstock to much of the country. More importantly, to her constituents, she's gotten herself embroiled in a number of scandals and her approval rating has started to drop (though she's still above 50% from what I can tell) and her effectiveness is starting to drop. At some point, the naif who came to the capital city and got some stuff that obviously needed getting done but that only an outsider would do mantle fades away to be replaced by "holy $#%^, we're governed by a nincompoop." Leaving now, she gets out the door before that transition is accomplished in the minds of many Alaskans and she may be remembered fondly going forward.

That rarely happens in public life. More common is the model followed by our illustrious recently retired President. He accomplished his main goal early - cutting taxes. It didn't accomplish what he had in mind, of course:

The President’s plan will accelerate this trend to record rates by retiring an historic $2 trillion in debt over the next 10 years. Under the President’s budget, the national debt will be only seven percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2011, its lowest share in more than 80 years. (See Chart 1–1.)
Indeed, the President’s Budget pays down the debt so aggressively that it runs into an unusual problem—its annual surpluses begin to outstrip the amount of maturing debt starting in 2007. This means that the United States will be effectively unable to retire any more debt than what is assumed in the Administration’s Budget over the next 10 years—the President achieves ‘‘maximum possible debt retirement’’ in his budget.


And the longer he stuck around, the more failures he accumulated... nobody said anything about turning over Iraq to kleptocrats or Afghanistan to fanatics, the jobs we were promised never came about, the ownership society turned out to be a joke, and the so-called comprehensive energy policy we were going to have turned out to be pretty good for Exxon, but not so much for the rest of us.

But there was a sweet spot - somewhere around 2003 or at most 2004 when his popularity was still high, when his accomplishments still hadn't fallen apart - had he resigned at that point, he'd be remembered fondly. And it would have been the patriotic thing to do; if he had managed to noodle out that he was way over his head (despite the fact that the more oblivious believers would still be talking Mount Rushmore for a few years to come) and put someone else in charge, the country would probably have been better off. But he stayed on past the point where even some of the folks not bright enough to avoid soiling themselves through the National Review had realized he was a disaster. By doing so, GW dishonored the Office of the President. Had he quit before that, things would be very different. He would have left a message to posterity that it is better to walk away than continue to inflict his incompetence upon the nation.


That would have been an act of greatness.

But its not just morons who have such a historic opportunity. Carter was generally regarded as a smart guy, and he accomplished some positive things while in office, but after a few years, it was fairly clear he simply wasn't up to the job. He should have been smart enough and patriotic enough to step aside. Nixon was another smart guy, and he too had some early accomplishments, but he was also out of his league; had he resigned for that reason, rather than as a result of Watergate, we'd remember him well today, despite the economic disaster he spawned.

Unfortunately, we haven't had enough Presidents who are humble enough to admit they are out of their league and patriotic enough to walk away on their terms. LBJ came close; he achieved a lot in 5 years - the fastest annualized growth in real GDP per capita of any President since FDR, the Great Society, cutting poverty significantly, moving Civil Rights forward, etc., but he simply could not solve Vietnam, and the economy was starting to strain. LBJ could have run once more, and perhaps he could have won, but he was done.

Of course, it isn't just Presidents who can't come out and admit their incompetence; we have no shortage of imbeciles running everything from big corporations to school boards. So here's to Sarah Palin, who had the strength, for whatever reason, to tell her constituents they'd be better off if she gave up the top spot to someone else.
_________________________

by cactus

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Goldman Sach's doubles bonuses?

rdan

After looking at Spencer's charts on job loss for the month, and the decrease in hours worked in a week I felt bad. However,the WSJ announces that:

Business is back on Wall Street. If the good times continue to roll, lofty pay packages may be set for a comeback as well.

Based on analysts' earnings forecasts for 2009, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is on track to pay out as much as $20 billion this year, or about $700,000 per employee. That would be nearly double the firm's $363,000 average last year, and slightly higher than the $661,000 for the average Goldman employee in fiscal 2007, according to analyst estimates reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.


Rolling Stones's Matt Taibbi discusses Goldman Sachs Group Inc. influence and apparent ability to profit from a variety of situations. It also does not take a 'conspiracy' to accomplish...(hat tip MG) .

A fine American tradition continues. No false modesty there. How did they do that?

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Monday, July 06, 2009

Joe Biden? The Map Office is Calling!

by Bruce Webb

The blogosphere is alive with news that Joe implicitly green-lighted an Israeli attack on Iran. Well I had my say here and there. I just want to share a map from Cordesman and Toukan's Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities in part because it tells its own story. Plus it's pretty damn cool looking.

"
Gosh if a 'sovereign' Israel just decides to bomb Iran who could possibly blame the U.S.? It is not like we totally control Iraqi air space.

Oh wait.

Israel cannot attack Iran without material assistance from the U.S. which at a minimum means refueling assistance and emergency landing fields. Full stop.

Update 2. Well the map apparently didn't tell the whole story. So here is Cordesman and Toukman's 'Mission Analysis'. Note the mismatch between refueling requirements and actual refueling planes in the Israeli fleet. Note too that the analysis assumes zero effectiveness among Iranian Air and Ground Defense. Iranian pilots may be as bad as Buff assumes, but I don't think we can say the same thing about Iran's large supply of Soviet built surface to air missiles.


(update- JS Kit doesn't recognize my phone. So I will respond to comments here

The Sunday Times (UK) released a very short report based on a supposed secret briefing by Mossad to Netanyahu about some clearance by Saudi Arabia. The only source actually named in the story is John Bolton and considering the J Post/Sunday Times/Murdoch/AIPAC nexus I am waiting for some more authoritative sourcing. For example Haaretz is today reporting an official government denial.

As for the Eitan it is an unmanned turbo-prop more designed for surveilance than bombing hardened targets with its negligible payload. It would be shot down the instant it went under 20000 feet. At 40000 ft it is practically untouchable. Then again so was the U-2-we thought.

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Industrial production, real imports , real retail trade & inventories

By Spencer,

Every month the various economic indicators are released and various people comment on them-- usually in isolation.

So I thought it would be informative to look at some of the key releases since the December, 2007 peak together. As the chart shows, industrial production and real imports have fallen much more than real retail sales.




At least my first reaction to this chart would be to think that this combination should generate a major decline in the I/S ratio. But, as the second chart shows all the sharp drop in industrial production and collapse in real imports has done is to keep the I/S ratio from continuing to deteriorate. The I/S ratio is barely below its cyclical peak. The normal cyclical pattern is for the I/S ratio peak to coincide with a bottoming and strong rebound in consumer spending. Consequently, the I/S ratio normally improves as much or more because sales are rising as inventories are falling. But this cycle sales are just bottoming and not rising sharply --partially because of the rebound in savings. So further improvements in the I/S ratio is likely to require continued declines in industrial production and real imports.

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Sunday, July 05, 2009

Just Because You're Paranoid Doesn't Mean Law Enforcement Isn't Out to Help You

From the coolest possibly-corporate-espionage story of the week:

If only the FBI were to tackle cases of national security and loss of life with the same speed and precision as they confront presumed high-frequency program trading industrial espionage cases... especially those that allegedly involve Goldman Sachs.

The original is from Reuters.

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Embassy building is big bucks in ME

rdan

Pentagon's list shows 865 military bases worldwide, plus bases in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is current funding to build a giant fortress in Islamabad, Pakistan on the order of the 'embassy' in Iraq to the tune of 785 million USD (corrected number..rdan) (cost overuns excluded but guanteed so perhaps about 1 billion USD). The US spends about 102 billion/year USD on maintaining bases throughout the world.

Could someone explain to me the rational for this kind of military base/embassy? How does it accomplish whatever goals it is designed for?

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An imaginary conversation with my family doctor

by reader Denis
(lots of links)

Me: $1.2 million is the average income for top 1 percentile households (2006 figure). You must have made at least a couple of million last year, right? I mean you are a doctor – and you are with Columbia Presbyterian hospital.

Doctor Levine: “[Laughs].”

Me: You mean that the 15% of share of income (correction from GDP) that slipped out of the pockets of bottom 90 percentile earners and into the buckets of top 1 percentile earners over the past few decades slipped right past you doctors?

Doctor Levine: “[Smiles ruefully].”

Me: Still, with the US having 135% of the per capita GDP of comparable modern economies we should no trouble devoting 15% of GDP [.15 X 1.35 = .2025] to health care, right (note parallel with 15% of income shifted to pockets of folks who earn lots more than doctors)? Unless we have too deeply gutted much of our workforce’s pay – with something like 30% of families living below the poverty line.

A plausible poverty line for a family of three (on the "minimum needs" table on p.44 of the 2001 book Raise the Floor) is $33,345 in 2008 dollars -- if health care is otherwise covered(not the $20,000 government calculation based on three times the price of an emergency diet – premiums alone exceed $12,000 yr.!). If you look at the Census, median family income is about $62,000. The real minimum needs line would hover somewhere around 37 percentile – 37 percentile if we didn't count families with paid health insurance. Knock off 7 points (guesstimate) for families on the top end with paid insurance (not those on the bottom with Medicaid) and we can reckon – it turns out very reliably -- about 30% of American families’ incomes are below minimum needs without government helps like food stamps.

Sounds like a quarter of the country must be earning less than the minimum wage or something equally crazy, right? Nearly a quarter of the workforce is earning less than the minimum wage – if we are talking about Lyndon Johnson’s 1968 minimum wage of $10/hr [$1.60/hr adjusted] – back when average income was half today’s. (FYI, tech improvement, like how much better today’s Timex is, generally not counted in inflation estimates.)

Doctor Levine: “How can something like this happen; why can’t we straighten it out?”

We can straighten out our labor market any time we wish – nothing like this happens anywhere else in the first-world. Simply institute the same labor market structure in place in virtually every modern economy (and many not so modern like Argentina and Indonesia): sector-wide labor agreements – wherein everybody with the same job description within the same locale works under identical collectively bargained terms with all the different firms – legislation required. [Note: check out French-Canadian “lite” version.]

Medical Doctor (not psychiatrist) Levine: What is holding back our big wig progressives from pushing – or at least mentioning out loud – such apparently badly needed and promisingly efficacious labor market changes?

Me: Something I call “pack check.” Males instinctively check in with what everybody else is thinking on any economic or political – or metaphorical “hunting pack” -- issue. And as long as they stay fix-focused on what everybody else is thinking it can seem impossible to them to make headway in an entirely new policy direction: so many different people require so many different approaches – and whom did we ever convert before with our most reasonable (we thought) arguments. Impostavazoo!

Sociobiology time – my lay opinion anyway: chasing wild pigs (what human males evolved doing) required a kind of perfect awareness of what every other hunting pack member was doing (pigs, as anyone who owns one can tell you, are not stupid) – was an essential survival mechanism. Without awareness of the need to break free from this innate focus-on-everybody-else’s-focus, at least for short breaks, all the economic male geeks in all the world may never initiate any new solution to the uniquely lop-side bargaining power ruining the American labor market – nor anything else – no matter how obviously practical, no matter how desperately (!) needed.

Human males are not so much pig headed as we are “pig-chase” headed.

Doctor Levine: “[Makes excuse; finally escapes].”

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Saturday, July 04, 2009

Fox Noise on Canadian private insurance boom

By: Divorced one like Bush

This is a heads up. Fox news has a report out that there is a rise in private insurance activity in Canada. The article suggests that it is because of all the wait time that people are tired of do to a shortage of doctors and possibly the low fees. And, that may be true, especially being there was a Quebec Supreme Court ruling on it.

If you google the headline, you will find many a posting touting this article as a sort of proof that the Canadian system really is bad stuff.

But, and with Fox there is always a butt, what they do not tell you is that their article is based on a report in the CMAJ – JAMC article from 2008: Canada Health Act breaches are being ignored, pro-medicare groups charge

Private for-profit medical clinics are proliferating across the country, according to a detailed report by pro-medicare groups.
The number of such clinics has increased significantly over the past 5 years and there's evidence "to suspect that 89 for-profit clinics in 5 provinces appear to be in breach of the Canada Health Act," states the 169-page Eroding Public Medicare: Lessons and Consequences of For-Profit Health Care Across Canada report.
But federal and provincial officials "have fallen down in their responsibility to protect patients against extra billing and 2-tier care," says report author Natalie Mehra, director of the Ontario Health Coalition.

The Fox article quotes the same Natalie, but not those quotes.

The CMAJ article continues:
Researchers also found evidence of physicians practising in hospitals but referring patients to their private for-profit businesses, where medically necessary services would be provided more quickly, for an out-of-pocket fee...

So, some illegal stuff is going on (boom in private activity), the government was suppose to do something about it, but it didn't. Can you say “conservative, Milton Freedmon governance”?

Continuing:
In 1995, then-federal health minister Diane Marleau issued a policy interpretation letter calling on provinces to introduce “regulatory frameworks” to govern the operation of private clinics, and make illegal the “facility fees” charged by private clinics which provide publicly-insured services.


Basically as I read the real article, the boom is actually starting to create what we have here in the USA. A two class society regarding health care access with rising expenditures as doc's have the market opportunity to charge more via cash deals. Kind of a black market situation? Is the solution to be more like us, or is the solution to solve the bottle neck of not enough doctors? Or maybe the problem is that once you let people who can pay for them self do so (choice?), you begin the destruction of what was a system that treated everyone equally. That is, for a basic human need such as health care, everyone is of the same stature.

We have a great opportunity here with Canada. What happened in our banking system is what has happened to Canada's health care funding system. Same ideology implimented, same distruction for the benefit of the few.

We are seeing the effects of what happens when the ideology of individual freedom is made predominat in an economic system that assured equality regarding basic needs. That is the key: Basic Needs. Not wants, not money beyond autonomous consumption, but money at autonomous consumption. It is libertarian economics vs Jefferson democracy economics. Personal economic freedom for needs funnels down the benefits of human progress to fewer people instead of expanding the benefits to every more people.

There was one letter responding to the CMAJ article. An open letter to the minister of healthPaul C. Hébert, MD MHSc, Editor-in-Chief
After more than a decade, the health system has not fully recovered from the last round of federal cuts in the mid-1990s. The large reduction of about 10% in federal funding for health forced provincial governments to axe many health care programs, close some hospitals and reduce the number of beds in the remaining institutions, as well as slash training positions for physicians and other health care providers... Provincial governments have become much more autonomous and, in many instances, unwilling to adopt new programs and standards in the interest of all Canadians. The ongoing jurisdictional battle between federal and provincial governments, whether over First Nations health, public health, access to care and expensive medications or the setting of national standards, suggests that the federal government has little influence on Canada’s health systems. The ability of the provinces to offer private services1 and mount administrative barriers to portability of services without consequences is a constant reminder of this weakened federal authority...Canada’s health care systems seem to be moving further and further away from fulfilling the promise of the Canada Health Act.

The reason for limited progress is an erosion of national leadership in health. Successive federal governments have either decreased investments or, through inaction, allowed health to be a purely provincial matter. Despite the importance of health in the minds of the voting public, we remain very concerned that health has slipped entirely off the federal agenda.

Get it? What is actually happening in Canada is the results of the Grover Norquist training manual for conservative governance, the goal of which is the drowning of anything that suggests a social conscience.

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Open thread July 4, 2009

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Happy July 4th

rdan

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Friday, July 03, 2009

SILOs --more action needed?

Tax advantaged "sale-leasebacks" with strapped-for-cash municipalities (SILOs, in the ever-present tax acronym set) came back to light when the Washington Metro train crashed a week ago. The cars were ones that were involved in the metro authority's SILO deals with various banks, and the authority didn't have any spare cash left to fund replacements. See this A Taxing Matter posting on the Metro SILOs, Jun 25, 2009.

I won't rehash the entire discussion of SILOs covered there. Just note that the transit SILO deals were contrived to permit banks to "buy" the federal income tax depreciation deductions on municipal equipment. The municipalites couldn't use the deductions, since municipalities are tax-exempt entities. The buying corporations were subject to US tax (usually, a bank) and they were looking for every way possible to avoid paying tax--they would essentially pay a fee to the municipalities, sharing part of their tax savings, for serving as an accommodation party in these deals. They "purchased" the municipalities' property with nonrecourse debt, and then had "lease income" that was offset by both interest deductions and depreciation deductions, generating artificial losses from the accelerated depreciation. Most of the purchase price was set aside to defease the seller's obligation under the lease, with the excess the fee for accommodating the tax shelter.

Jim Lehrer covered transit agency SILOs in the March NewsHour, depicting many of the transit agencies as motivated by their desperate need for capital--and encouraged by the federal Dept. of Transportation to use these means to get some. So there is a vicious double circle of irony here, that as states and localities cut taxes during the GOP years, under the flawed assumption that lower taxes means higher revenues, the states and municipalities also cut back on the funding needed by these important public service agencies, and an arm of the federal government encouraged these transit agencies to enter these deals, and at least 30 of them did, serving as accommodation parties in tax shelter deals with banks, so that banks would pay even less taxes than they already did.

Future SILOs were generally undone by new section 470, one of the few revenue raising provisions in the 2004 tax act. (The 2004 Act otherwise amounted to a pile of tax breaks for US corporations, such as the rate cut on repatriating offshore profits. It was misleadingly labeled the "American Jobs Creation Act" to signal the purported justification for all the corporate tax breaks. It didn't lead to the creation of many jobs.) The new section disallowed to U.S. taxpayers a "tax-exempt loss", defined as the excess of deductions other than interest and interest deductions allocable to tax exempt use property over the aggregate income from the property. Exceptions allowed certain "true" leases--essentially, ones in which the obligation of the seller-renter had not been defeased by the payment from the buyer and where the buyer had actually put some equity into the deal (the provision requires only 20% of genuine, at-risk equity). There are fewer tax benefits to true leases, so even with the exception, the provision deters leasing deals.

One hitch--the act only applied prospectively, and the transit deals (just one of the varieties of SILOs that were being done at the time of the 2004 change) got special treatment, in that any deals in the pipeline were allowed to be grandfathered in as long as they were done by 2006!

The IRS pursued the old deals with pre-2004 Act tools and won SILO (and LILO--the earlier "lease in, lease out" deals) cases against Fifth Third Bank, BB&T, PNC and other banks. See, e.g., IRS Wins AWG SILO Tax Shelter Case, TaxProf Blog (May 28, 2008) (dealing with the Ohio court's decision in 2008-1 USTC 50,370, in favor of the IRS in a SILO case involving two US national banks' "purchase", with nonrecourse loans from German banks whose proceeds were used by the "seller" to defease the lease obligation,
of a German waste facility used to acquire beneficial tax deductions); Ohio Judge Rejects Tax Claims on $423 Million Alleged Purchase of German Facility Made by Cleveland & Pittsburgh-Based Banks, DOJ (May 30, 2008); DOJ, Ohio Jury Finds Cincinnati-based Bank not Entitled to $5.6 Million Tax Refund (LILO transctions); BB&T Corp, 2008-1 USTC 50,306 (4th Cir.) (striking down tax treatment of financial service company's lease of Swedish wood-pulp manufacturing equipment as a LILO shelter); DOJ, Statement of Assistant Attorney General Nathan J. Hochman on Today's Decision in BB&T Corporation v. United States (Apr. 29, 2008).

After the court victories, the IRS offered a SILO settlement for these deals that permitted them to keep 20% of their claimed tax losses and waived the penalties, if they terminated the transactions. IRS Commissioner's Remarks Regarding LILO/SILO Settlement Initiative (Aug. 6, 2008); Donmoyer, IRS Offers to Settle 45 leasing Tax-Shelter Disputes, Bloomberg.com (Aug. 6, 2008); Service Launces LILO, SILO Settlement Initiative, J. Acct. (Oct. 13, 2008). It later announced that "hundreds of taxpayers settled similar cases involving tens of billions of dollars." DOJ, Justice Department Highlights FY 2008 Tax Enforcement Results (Apr. 13, 2009). On leaving office, Korb statedthat "taxpayers representing over 80 percent of the dollars involved have elected to take advantage of the settlement initiative." See Korb Interview. (Dec. 19, 2008).

The settlement offer required taxpayers to terminate the transactions by Dec. 31, 2008, else they would be deemed terminated by that date, with taxpayers still able to claim the partial loss benefit through the actual termination date if they terminated the transaction by Dec. 31, 2010. That's a fairly strong incentive for termination, but the municipalities may be on the hook for hefty termination payments under their contracts. Even worse, the AIG situation provided a perfect trigger for causing a technical default to apply. AIG guaranteed these deals, so when its credit rating went down, the transit agencies are in technical default and liable for hefty penalty payments. (see NewsHour video, above).

There are real problems here, including the idea of one agency of the government supporting its "clients" (transit agents of municipalities) entering into deals like this that result in corporate tax cheats robbing the government of important revenues. Another problem is the idea of the banks that were instrumental in causing the fiscal crisis--by risky, speculative behavior that disregarded the systemic risks--using AIG's collapse because of that fiscal mess as an excuse to get municipalities that are especially cash-strapped because of the fiscal crisis (and finding their ability to borrow or get tax revenues severely restricted) to pay over large penalty amounts under their shelter contracts. It seems like an unfair windfall for tax cheating Big Banks at the cost of the people.

And of course, just extending the 2004 provision to make grandfathered SILO/LILO transactions illegitimate and their tax deductions disallowed doesn't solve this problem, since these are windfalls that the tax cheaters would get under their "lease" contracts.

Rep. Menendez of NJ has proposed a potential solution--the "Close the SILO/LILO Loophole Act" S. 1341, introduced in late June. His bill, he says, would "help protect WMATA and other transit agencies who are being threatened by banks seeking to gain a windfall from the current economic climate while potentially putting transit agencies at risk." See press release, As Lease-Back Deals Are Raaised as an Issue in Metro Crash, Menendez Says legislation Can help Unwind Deals, PolitickerNJ.com (Jun 26, 2009); Davis, Bill Would Tax Banks that Sue Agencies , Star Ledger (Jun 24, 2009); Letter from Menendez to Hoyer (Jun 26, 2009) (noting a need to "protect transit agencies from banks who are seeking to exploit a technicality that would result in agencies having to pay banks millions of dollars that could otherwise be used to shore up equipment and ensure safe operations, even though they have not missed a single payment to the bank"). The bill imposes an excise tax equal to 100% of any "ineligible amount" collected by "any person other than a SILO/LILO lessee" as a party to a SILO/LILO transaction. Ineligible amounts are proceeds from terminations, rescissions, or remedial actions in excess of those under defeasance arrangements. The bill also would deny deductions for attorney fees and other costs attributable to seeking to recover ineligible amounts.

It's messy, but it does end up with the right results, it seems. I note, though, that there are no additional co-sponsors at this time. Doesn't look like Congress is hopping on the bandwagon.

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"Too Shy" Sarah to run for President in 2036?

Given that Kajagoogoo is reforming this year, that is the only possible conclusion from this so far best reaction to the news out of Alaska.


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Open thread July 3, 2009 with GW

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Obama Economic Forecast

The right is having a lot of fun commenting about the economic forecast by the Obama team being too optimistic.


[unemployment+graph.bmp]

I guess they are right, Obama along with everyone else has massively underestimated the damage Team Bush did to our economy.

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Kennedy-Dodd HELP Bill with CBO Scoring

by Bruce Webb

I haven't gone through the text or the numbers, make of this what you will. But at least we can start with some actual numbers attached.
McClatchy: Kennedy-Dodd unveil cheaper health care bill

Bill Text: SHORTTITLE.—This Act may be cited as the ‘‘Affordable Health Choices Act"

CBO Score


Excerpts and updates may be added under the fold as discussion goes on.

Note 1: Read these tables with care! Page 1 compares currently non-elderly insured to projected non-elderly insured. This is how you end up with 97% of Americans with insurance in 2019 even as that drops to only 90% for non-elderly American citizens. 21 34 million uninsured still seems too high to me but as footnote 'd' indicates this includes people eligible for but not enrolled in Medicaid.
"

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Open thread July 3, 2009 without

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A different sort of crowding out

rdan

Money Central presents a dilemma for shareholders in goods and services:

The old notion that profitable companies with good growth prospects should have rising share prices -- and that failures like GM should be gone, or at least trading in the pennies -- is history.

Today, a hedge fund investing billions using a quantitative formula can stall a stock; a couple of hedge funds aligned can turn a profitable company into a Dow laggard. Toss in a few short sellers and you have the great Wall Street collapse of September 2008.

It wasn't always this way. Before the machines and the shorts took over Wall Street, stocks were evaluated by an underlying company's prospects. Buy-and-hold investing ruled the day. Investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Miller were the models.

Those fellows are a far cry from this generation's masters of the universe. Traders are in charge now. They rule the market. They dominate volume. That stock you bought because you thought the company was in good shape? It's a pawn in the hands of a computer model or some supertrader like Steven Cohen at SAC Capital Partners or Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio.

To move a security, they don't need to own it. They can have a short position. They can put an order to sell 1 million shares in a dark pool, those anonymous marketplaces that operate outside the walls of the exchanges. They can own options or futures contracts. Buy enough GM puts and watch the price begin to fall under the pressure.


Obvious, but plays havoc with the investing side of the tax cut and savings equation meme.

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Federal pre-emption of bank regs curtailed by Supreme Court

rdan

Seeking Alpha notes a Supreme Court ruling on federal pre-emption of state regulation of banks. Google on Angry Bear OCC for posts on the issue.

In a surprising 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court ruled that national banks are still subject to the laws of the states they operate in. What made the ruling unusual is that Justice Scalia wrote the opinion and the other four conservative judges were in dissent (Roberts, Thomas, Alito and the normal swing vote Kennedy).

The ruling overturned an appeals court ruling that said that state attorneys general cannot investigate banks if they operate in more than one state.

The case in question involved the enforcement of fair lending laws in N.Y. State, specifically allegations that some banks were charging minorities higher interest rates. Instead, even though these are state laws, the appeals court had said that only the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) had the power to investigate. In practice, this means that the laws were null and void, since the OCC has a lousy track record on such issues.

Enforcing state laws is simply not a priority for a division of the Treasury Department. While clearly there can be a problem if multiple agencies have jurisdiction in regulation, allowing things to slip through the cracks, there can also be problems when there is only one regulator and that regulator is in the pocket of the regulated. It is harder to capture all 50 state attorneys general and the OCC, than it is just the OCC alone. Make no mistake, the head of the OCC, John Dugan, a holdover from the last administration, is very much a creature of the big banks he is supposed to be overseeing. The OCC ranks just behind the OTS in being an ineffectual regulator during the bubble.

While the state attorneys general will not be able to issue subpoenas on their own authority (they need approval from a state judge), it does mean that they do not have to sit on their hands if they think the banks are breaking the law. It also will mean a more fair application of the law.


Update: Remember that John Dugan is the regulator who insisted it was the job of banks to validate their own risk models.

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Posts are contributed by cactus, divorced one like bush, save the rustbelt, rdan, spencer, stormy, Bruce Webb, Ken Houghton, Tom Bozzo, Robert Waldmann, Linda Beale. Guest posts are frequently contributed and others welcome. Template by Calculated Risk and edited by Rdan.
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